The outcome of the US elections could have a significant impact on Luxembourg. Voices from Luxembourg society and politics.
Uwe Hentschel, Martina Folscheid
06 November 2024Share
Where is the US headed? To another trip with Donald Trump? Is this the best option for Europe and Luxembourg? We invited Luxembourgish personalities from various fields to give their opinion.
Carlo Thelen, General Director of the Chamber of Commerce
Trump’s motto – “America First” – applies particularly to the economy. What consequences could a new Republican presidency have on trade relations between the US and Luxembourg?
Donald Trump is not a fan of bilateral trade deficits, whether with China, which remains his favourite adversary, or with Europe, with which the former president has no ties. When it comes to trade, Donald Trump judges the success or failure of his country according to its foreign trade surpluses or deficits. This is why he is also pushing for a tax on all American imports of around 10%, in order to strengthen the competitiveness of American industry in its domestic market. The goal of reindustrialising the United States, pursued by both Trump and Harris, will inevitably be achieved at the expense of other developed countries, particularly in Europe.
In the commercial field, Donald Trump judges the success or failure of his country based on foreign trade surpluses or deficits.
Carlo ThelenGeneral Director of the Chamber of Commerce
A possible re-election of Trump could therefore have a significant impact on trade relations between the US and Luxembourg, as well as with the EU as a whole. The United States is an important market for EU products. Last year, European exports of goods to the US exceeded €500 billion, of which Germany accounted for a third. This performance has enabled the bloc to achieve a trade surplus with the United States of almost €160 billion, of which €60 billion goes to Germany alone, Luxembourg’s most important partner.
If US trade policy becomes more stringent and general import tariffs are introduced for EU countries, Luxembourg’s exports will also be affected. In particular, Luxembourg companies that export to the US or that rely on transatlantic trade flows could feel the negative impact on international and transatlantic trade.
We should also consider the impact on Luxembourg if the EU’s important markets, Germany and France, experience a further slowdown in economic growth. Germany is particularly vulnerable. Its three largest export categories to the US – chemicals, machinery, and automotive and transport products – continue to suffer from weak demand as a result of recent shocks and strong competition.
A global slowdown in neighbouring countries would logically also have an impact on Luxembourg. The importance of these elections for the Grand Duchy therefore lies in the economic impact on the EU as a whole, taking into account the single market.
Anne Brasseur, former MP and Minister of the DP
How will the human rights situation in the US change depending on the election results?
The US presidential election is a game-changer for liberal democracy and freedom, not only in the US itself but also in the rest of the world. The outcome of the election could even be a turning point for the future of human rights. A future President Kamala Harris will determine the foreign and domestic policy agenda as much as a possible President Donald Trump.
During his election campaign, Donald Trump announced numerous plans for a second term that disregard human rights, when he declared in front of the cameras that he intended to use the military against his political opponents. If Trump is reelected, we can expect a retrograde and patriarchal policy that rejects abortion, in line with evangelical groups.
The resilience of democratic institutions could be at stake in a possible second Trump term. His repeated attacks on independent media and his tendency to promote authoritarian leadership styles suggest that even greater restrictions on fundamental rights could follow.
In the case of a future President Kamala Harris, no changes are expected from the Biden administration. As vice president, Harris has already stressed her commitment to protecting and expanding the rights of women, minorities, and the LGBTQ+ community. Particularly on the polarizing issue of abortion, the candidate’s statements indicate that women’s rights and access to reproductive health care must be strengthened.
Harris is expected to take action to combat discrimination and racial injustice. Her agenda includes reforms to the criminal justice system, reducing police brutality and protecting immigrants’ rights. Under her leadership, human rights issues, particularly the protection of marginalized groups, could also be given greater focus in the area of climate policy.
In addition to defending human rights, the outcome of the election will significantly determine the role of the US government in matters of security and world order.
American citizens have a new opportunity to see the signs of an autocratic evolution under Trump and to decide in favor of democracy, freedom, the rule of law and human rights.Read more:Trump declares “unprecedented victory”
Michel Reis, pianist and composer
How will the cultural landscape and cultural funding in the US change as a result of the election?
I can’t predict the future, but I do believe that depending on which political party wins, this will also have an impact on arts funding. I’m thinking of the National Endowment for the Arts , for example. This government-funded agency, which is very important for promoting artists in America, could see funding cut or, at worst, disappear if Donald Trump is elected president of the United States.
It would be a shame if a country that has produced so many great artists in recent decades and throughout the 20th century were to stop doing so simply because the wrong political leadership would undermine the importance of the arts, or worse, freedom of artistic expression. In the case of the National Endowment of the Arts , in particular, there have already been several attempts to cut all funding for the program.
Yuriko Backes, Minister of Defense
The NATO alliance has been repeatedly called into question by Donald Trump, especially when it comes to requiring alliance partners to invest at least 2% of their Gross Domestic Product (GDP) in defence spending. Some countries have not yet achieved this target, including Luxembourg. What impact can we expect on Europe’s defence if Trump is elected president?
The United States knows the value of our transatlantic alliance. Since Russia’s war on Ukraine [in 2022] in violation of international law and its illegal annexation of Crimea in 2014, NATO has grown and grown together. The United States has no interest in jeopardizing our Alliance. In a multipolar world where the rules-based international order can no longer be taken for granted, Euro-Atlantic democracies must stand together to defend our common interests.
At the 2023 NATO Summit in Vilnius, Alliance partners agreed on the 2% target. Luxembourg also committed to this target, and in June this year I presented our plan on how to get there by 2030. Our efforts are focused on implementing this plan, in order to play our part in collective defence in a spirit of solidarity. For Luxembourg, this means doubling our defence spending to around €1.46 billion by the end of this decade. A huge challenge, but also a necessary investment in our security, freedom and interests.
Daniel Atz, an American with Luxembourgish roots
You run an agency in New York that helps Americans of Luxembourgish descent apply for Luxembourg citizenship. To what extent will the high probability of Trump becoming president again affect you? Could this lead to an exodus of Americans with dual nationality to the Grand Duchy?
I recently returned to the United States after spending some time in Luxembourg. There is an emerging consensus among many of my contacts in the country that Donald J. Trump could win the upcoming election.
If Donald Trump is re-elected, I believe there will be a measurable increase in the number of Americans moving abroad.
Daniel AtzAmerican with Luxembourgish roots
As to whether a Trump victory might prompt Luxembourgish dual nationals in the US to leave the country, in our July 2023 survey of 416 new citizens, 56% said that “recent political or social events have led them to take up a second nationality”. While this does not allow us to draw direct conclusions about the number of people who will decide to move, it is in line with the feedback we have received from our clients.
In January of this year in particular, we saw an increase in the number of inquiries about starting citizenship processes, with many citing the upcoming elections as a motivating factor. While I cannot speak for the intentions of over 15,000 people, we have several indicators that the elections may have an impact on the future plans of many Luxembourg dual nationals in the US.
If Donald Trump is reelected, I believe there will be a measurable increase in the number of Americans moving abroad, continuing a trend reported by The New York Times and other media.
This trend has even had an impact in Europe, where the increase in the number of American buyers has led to a rise in property prices in cities such as Lisbon and Paris. While I am by no means sending a warning signal to Luxembourg politicians that this trend is imminent in the Grand Duchy, I think European policymakers should take note.
Furthermore, Trump’s proposal to abolish taxation of Americans abroad based on citizenship could remove a significant barrier to relocation, further facilitating such changes.
One thing is certain: it seems that, with each passing day, we are moving further into unprecedented territory.
Xavier Bettel, Minister of Foreign Affairs and Deputy Prime Minister
The United States and Luxembourg share a deep partnership with historical ties, both politically and people-to-people. The United States is Luxembourg’s most important trading partner outside the EU. It is an indispensable economic partner for Luxembourg, with important collaborations in key sectors such as finance, industry, technology, digital technology and space. Regardless of the outcome of the presidential election in the United States, Luxembourg is convinced that there is a need to further strengthen our transatlantic relations. Regardless of the country in question, we generally do not comment on the programs or proposals presented by candidates during an election campaign. We base our analyses and assessments on duly adopted decisions.